The Lie the Character Believes
Every positive arc begins with a false belief the protagonist holds about themselves or the world. The entire story is the process of dismantling that lie. The lie must be specific enough to produce specific behavioral consequences. Vague lies ('she doesn't believe in herself') produce vague arcs. Precise lies ('she believes her value is conditional on never making a mistake') produce precise arcs where every structural beat can be mapped to the lie's progression. Before writing the first chapter, you must be able to state the protagonist's false belief in one sentence.